Ft-1 All the above mentioned approaches employ constant variance and covariance to measure hedge ratio, which have some problems. Finally, the Dow Jones portfolio contained only 30 stocks of very large firms.
Relative to equation 2 - 3the hedge ratio represents the ratio of the number of units of futures to the number of units of spot that must be hedged, whereas, relative to eq.
It was concluded that there was no obvious pattern in terms of risk reduction in relation to time to expiration. MVHRs were computed by regressing changes in the spot price on changes in the futures price. In order to test for co-integration, it is essential to check that each series is I 1.
Scarpa and Manera, Eq. Also, longer duration hedges were found to be more viable than short duration hedges and finally effects of time expiration on hedge ratio and effectiveness was found be ambiguous.
Value is the daily or weekly closing value of all 6 indexes. This can be explained as variance of returns increases with an increase in the duration, resulting in the reduction of the proportion of the total risk accounted for by the basis risk.
Empirical existence of co-integration is tested by constructing test statistics from the residuals of the above equation. Four hedging strategies including traditional hedge, beta hedge, minimum variance hedge and composite hedge were compared on the basis if within sample performance.
Junkas and Lee used daily spot and futures closing prices for the period to for three US indices: MVHR resulted in lower risk and higher return.
Hedging effectiveness was investigated for one, two and four week hedge duration. Consider two time series Xt and Yt, both of which are integrated of order one i. However, hedging performance was considerably reduced for smaller stocks portfolios.
Due to problems of sample size hedge durations of more than one week are not considered. A variable Xt is I 1if it requires differencing once to make it stationary.
Results showed that MVHR increased towards unity with an increase in the hedging duration. Data for spot and future series was collected for the period July to June for hedging duration of one and two weeks.
Xt which is I 0then according to Engle and Granger, Xt and Yt are co-integrated, with the co-integrating parameter?. Casillo,XXXX Despite the existence of massive literature on all the above approaches, no unanimous conclusion has been reached regarding the superiority of a particular methodology for determining the optimal hedge ratio.
If anyone of the lags in model 7 turn out to be significant, then optimal hedge ratio obtained through model 7 will be superior then hedge ratio obtained through model 3.
Lastly, the superior hedge ratio will be used to determine ex ante performance.To estimate the hedge ratio, a conventional method involves estimating the following linear regression model: rst = α + βrft + εt, where rst and rft are the spot and futures returns, respectively, for period t, and εt is the disturbance term.
The OLS estimator of β provides an estimate for the optimal hedge ratio h. Estimation and performance evaluation of optimal hedge ratios in the carbon market of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme John Hua Fan, Eduardo Roca, Alexandr Akimov Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Australia.
Relative to equation (2)-(3), the hedge ratio represents the ratio of the number of units of futures to the number of units of spot that must be hedged, whereas, relative to eq. (4), hedge ratio is the ratio of the value of futures to the value of spot.
based on a group of alternative optimal hedge ratio values. For example, a number of hedging strategies within a 95% confidence interval for the optimal hedge ratio (e.g., the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles) can be considered.
In this paper, we propose a new method of hedging based on interval estimation of the optimal hedge ratio. Estimation of Optimal Hedge Ratios (hedging strategies): Naïve or one-to-one hedge assumes that futures and cash prices move closely together. In this traditional view of hedging, the holding of both the initial spot asset and the futures contract used to offset the risk of the spot asset are of equal magnitude but in opposite direction.
Estimation of the Optimal Hedge Ratio Hedging using futures involves taking a position in the futures market that is opposite to the position held in the spot market.Download